Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
🔄 The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be a combination of the 2016-2017 cyclical component and the 2019-2020 monetary policy component.
📉 The running one-year ROI reached 2x this cycle but, unlike 2017, it broke down, getting stuck between 1x and 2x similar to the 2019-2020 cycle.
⚖️ This suggests a blend where the cyclical structure of previous bull runs meets the monetary policy impacts observed in more recent periods.

Investment Horizon & Returns
📈 Historically, looking at a 4-year ROI, Bitcoin has never been down, indicating it has been a strong investment over the last decade.
⏳ Consider an investment horizon of at least four years for Bitcoin, as historically, most investors have seen positive returns over this period.
📉 Be aware of potential diminishing returns for Bitcoin over longer periods, as indicated by lower peaks in the two-year ROI.

ROI Metrics & Buying Opportunities
📊 The 180-day ROI topped out at similar levels in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 going slightly higher.
💰 A historical indicator for a good buying opportunity has been when the 180-day ROI drops below 1x.
📅 In recent years, the low for the 180-day ROI was found in Q3, which is approaching in 2-3 weeks, potentially signaling a buying period.

Key Points & Insights
💡 Recognize that each Bitcoin cycle is unique, incorporating elements of both cyclical behavior and monetary policy effects.
📈 Utilize historical ROI data, particularly the consistent positive 4-year ROI, to inform long-term investment strategies in Bitcoin.
🎯 Monitor the 180-day ROI, specifically when it falls below 1x, as it has historically marked favorable buying opportunities.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Jul 12, 2025, 15:51 UTC