Investment Strategy and Bitcoin Focus
📌 The guest does not primarily use Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) but rather a "Lamsam" approach, focusing on specific market moments and momentum in Bitcoin for buying.
⚖️ The speaker currently allocates 70% of their portfolio to Bitcoin as a defensive measure, emphasizing the need for a strong defense before aggressive plays.
📉 The speaker advocates against panic selling, noting that during the 2018 crash, they held through an 80% loss on an initial $\text{IDR }300$ million investment, refusing to cut losses.
❌ They plan to trim their Bitcoin holdings by converting some to stablecoins, but will never sell 50% of their core BTC holding, ensuring they can never truly lose everything.

Analyzing and Investing in Altcoins/Memecoins
🪙 Memecoins are treated as "for fun" speculation, with a strict limit of allocating only 1% to 5% of the portfolio due to the centralized control inherent in many such projects.
🤔 Successful memecoin investment requires analyzing the underlying team, the project's "cultus" (culture/narrative), its Intellectual Property (IP), and the involvement of a significant Market Maker/Bandar.
📊 Strategies for memecoins involve spreading capital across many assets early in a bull market and then narrowing down (kerucutin) investments to the strongest performers as momentum solidifies.

On-Chain Analysis and Market Timing
📊 Key indicators for market timing include Price Action, Sentiment Analysis, and crucially, On-Chain Analytics, which reveals the actual movement of mined Bitcoin.
📉 A "very good time to buy" is indicated by metrics like the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) entering the capitulation zone, signaling high fear.
📈 The Pi Cycle Top Indicator (combining SMA 111 and SMA 350) helps signal when the market is overheated, suggesting it might be time to sell or trim positions.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ Education is paramount: Never invest based on conviction from influencers; learn the fundamentals of blockchain technology first to develop independent decision-making skills.
➡️ Stay engaged during bear markets: Persistence in learning and networking during crypto winters is how valuable connections and information (like early indicators) are obtained.
➡️ Portfolio Defense: Maintain a strong defense (like the 70% BTC allocation) so that speculative plays on higher-risk assets do not jeopardize core wealth or sleep quality.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Dec 29, 2025, 00:08 UTC