Current Market Assessment and Macro View
📉 Bitcoin has dropped over 27% in the last 6 weeks, coinciding with broader market fears about a potential AI bubble similar to the dot-com era.
😨 The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 15, signaling a state of fear often associated with deep bear markets.
🔗 Historically, Bitcoin price is tightly correlated with M2 money supply (global liquidity), although Bitcoin has recently shown resilience despite liquidity downtrends.
🏛️ A significant stock market correction could force the government to cut rates, injecting liquidity that historically precedes massive inflows into crypto.

Review of Previous Investment Strategy (2024 Plan)
💰 The previous strategy involved dividing capital into a Core Portfolio (safer, larger caps) and a Casino Portfolio (high-risk, mid/low caps), aiming to stop adding to the Casino Portfolio near the cycle end.
📊 The moderate portfolio yielded approximately 1x return overall, underperforming simply holding Bitcoin, which returned about 1.85x.
🛡️ The core principle was to protect downside risk by ensuring any high-risk position had contained risk (e.g., a potential -1R loss versus potential gains up to 9x on some altcoins like BLUR.
💸 On October 28th, the strategy involved selling all high and medium-risk cryptocurrencies and moving into cash reserves based on cycle analysis, while maintaining Bitcoin exposure.

Updated Strategy and Future Positioning
📊 The speaker emphasizes that identifying reliable buy areas (low levels on logarithmic charts) is more important than timing the exact top, noting historical lows stay relatively consistent.
🎯 Using Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci retracements suggests a potential low consolidation range for Bitcoin between $60,000 and $75,000, which aligns with previous cycle high levels.
🚶 The current strategy involves continual buying of Bitcoin (DCA) while waiting for potential major dips (possibly to $45,000 based on historical severity decrease) before deploying the Casino Portfolio reserves.
🌐 Long-term outlook is highly bullish, projecting a 15x multiplier for Bitcoin if it reaches Gold's market capitalization ($28 trillion) as AI development necessitates verifiable programmable scarcity.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ Bitcoin's High Beta: Understand that Bitcoin reacts more sharply than stocks (higher beta); a small stock sell-off can cause a greater crypto drop, but the reverse is also true for upside potential.
➡️ Cash is Strategic: Moving into cash reserves from mid/high-risk alts allows for capital deployment at mathematical cycle lows for potentially 5x to 20x multipliers on specific assets during the next major upswing.
➡️ Focus on Accumulation Zones: Pay close attention to the logarithmic chart's lower band, as dips into this area historically signal substantial buying opportunities, even if the overall cycle duration extends towards September 2026.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Nov 30, 2025, 16:26 UTC