Introduction to Valuation and Intrinsic Value
📌 Valuation is the process of determining the fair value of an asset, specifically focusing on stocks in this discussion.
😨 The primary reason for valuation is to avoid overpaying for an asset, similar to knowing the expected price of a new iPhone before purchasing.
🚫 A key distinction is made: being "stuck" (nyangkut) occurs if you buy above the intrinsic value and the price drops, whereas buying below intrinsic value during a price drop is an opportunity.

Distinction Between Ratios and Intrinsic Value
📊 Ratios like Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book Value (P/BV), Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF), and EV/EBITDA measure the stock price against current performance.
🔮 Intrinsic value is not just about the present; it must incorporate future growth expectations of the company.
🛑 These ratios are useful for initial screening but do not reflect the true intrinsic value because they ignore future growth.

Margin of Safety (MoS) and Buying/Selling Strategy
🛡️ Intrinsic value serves as the target price (TP) for selling; investors should buy when the stock price is below this value, providing a margin of safety (discount).
📉 A minimum MoS of 30% is generally recommended, calculated as (Intrinsic Value - Stock Price) / Intrinsic Value.
⚠️ For higher-risk stocks, such as those with high debt or cyclical companies, a higher MoS, like 50%, is advisable.

Methods for Calculating Intrinsic Value
🔬 The presentation detailed three main methods for calculating intrinsic value, emphasizing that using multiple methods minimizes subjectivity:
1. EPS Discounted Model: Best suited for companies with consistently increasing net profit (e.g., BBNI example).
2. Equity Growth Model: Appropriate for companies whose net profits fluctuate (up and down) (e.g., NCKL example). This method does not require discounting future values back to present value.
3. ROE P/BV Model: Calculates fair P/BV based on Return on Equity (ROE); for instance, an ROE of 20% implies a fair P/BV of $2\times$ (e.g., HRTA example).

Calculation Example: EPS Discounted Model (BNI)
📈 For BBNI, using a base year of 2017, the calculation involved:
1. Determining Book Value Per Share (BVPS) $\approx$ Rp4,343.
2. Calculating current Earnings Per Share (EPS) $\approx$ Rp547.
3. Estimating future EPS by growing at a 5% CAGR (max 15% used) over 5 years, totaling $\approx$ 3,172.
4. Discounting the total future EPS using a 7% discount rate (5% average inflation + 2% conservative adjustment) to find the time value of money component ($\approx$ 2,262).
5. Intrinsic Value (IV) = BVPS + Discounted Future EPS $\approx$ Rp6,605 per share.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ Intrinsic value is dynamic and must be re-evaluated periodically (e.g., every quarter when financial reports are released) as company performance changes.
➡️ Do not rely solely on P/BV; always compare it against the Return on Equity (ROE) to determine if the valuation is justified relative to profitability.
➡️ Successful application of intrinsic value calculations led to identifying multibagger opportunities in stocks like ARC (400% profit) by buying at a significant discount (e.g., 50% MoS).

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Nov 29, 2025, 12:30 UTC