Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Analysis & Market Top Assessment
📌 The speaker believes the top for the current 4-year cycle is very likely in following the October all-time high, despite expectations for a Q4 2025 euphoric blowoff move.
📉 The divergence from equity markets, which hit new highs while Bitcoin dropped ~35% from its peak, signals a significant distribution event led by long-term whale holders.
🔄 Historically, cycles peak around the 35-month mark, and the October peak mirrors this pattern, suggesting the market is now entering the declining phase in preparation for a potential 2026 low.

Near-Term Price Expectations & De-Risking Strategy
⚠️ A hope rally is still anticipated lasting 6 to 8 weeks due to current extremely low sentiment (similar to the COVID crash lows), likely pushing Bitcoin back above $100,000.
🛡️ The speaker plans to de-risk the model portfolio by taking profit in tranches between $100,000 and $110,000, leaving a small "moon bag" of 7 units behind in case the cycle invalidation occurs.
🚫 Even if the model portfolio goes to zero allocation, the speaker stresses that individuals should never be "Bitcoinless," maintaining a separate, long-term "huddle strategy."

Market Sentiment and Competing Narratives
📢 The speaker suggests that the culture of Bitcoin has changed due to increased government involvement and institutional cheerleading (like Michael Sailor), contributing to the exodus by older, large holders.
🤖 Lack of new retail interest and the absence of a broad altcoin season further indicate the market feels "tired" and that capital is thin, moving instead toward AI stocks.
🤔 While many argue the cycle is dead because key on-chain indicators haven't flashed a top, the current price action mirrors prior four-year cycles structurally, supporting the distribution thesis.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ The current price action suggests a transition from the typical long rising phase to a declining phase of the cycle, signaled by distribution during favorable market conditions.
➡️ A counter-trend rally is expected soon, offering an opportunity to systematically reduce exposure on the model portfolio between $100k and $110k.
➡️ A bullish alternative scenario involves the price moving sideways between current lows (around $73k) and resistance (near $116k) for several months, which would signal a shift to a time-based cycle completion rather than a major price drop.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Nov 26, 2025, 03:23 UTC