Portfolio Allocation Adjustment Based on Cycle Analysis
📌 Sold 7% of BTC from the model portfolio at $90,000 USD due to confirmation of the 35-month high in the four-year cycle, indicating entry into the declining phase.
📉 The market showed a complete loss and close below the 10-month moving average, a key trend indicator, despite risk assets like equities hitting all-time highs.
💰 The cash position in the portfolio increased to approximately 52% following the sale, while 20 BTC remains held.

Market Divergence and Future Projections
😟 Significant divergence was noted as Bitcoin was flat for the year while equities soared, suggesting a lack of interest in crypto despite favorable conditions for upside.
📉 Whale selling has been significant (12-15 year holders dumping), which has not been countered by institutional buying (e.g., MicroStrategy), signaling potential weakness.
🎢 While a counter-trend rally is expected in the declining phase, the speaker is concerned it may not occur until after another significant downside leg potentially into February or March.

Contrarian Views and Long-Term Strategy
🤔 The speaker acknowledges arguments that the four-year cycle may be "dead" or influenced by business/liquidity cycles but defaults to the pattern resembling prior cycle behavior.
🛑 Limit orders remain set for selling at $100,000, $105,000, and $110,000 to capture a potential counter-trend rally if equity markets continue their push.
🛡️ A crucial instruction is to maintain a long-term huddle bag (not for trading) equivalent to the traded portion, ensuring exposure for the next 5 or 10 years, as no cycle prediction is foolproof.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ The current move suggests a decline starting around October, but an accelerated cycle might bring the cycle low sooner, potentially as early as July or August.
➡️ A stop-loss order target below $80,000 will be added to trigger further selling if that level is breached, signaling a deeper decline.
➡️ Selling is strategically done now because the current price (down about 27% from highs) is considered a reasonably good level to take some profit before potential further downside or the anticipated counter-trend move.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Jan 02, 2026, 16:32 UTC