Market Conditions in Early 2025
📉 The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a sharp correction of about 10% between early January and February 11, 2025, signaling market weakness.
📉 Major stocks suffered significant drops, including PAN down 36%, BBRI down 37%, AMAN down 21%, and even large banks like Mandiri down 15%.
📉 Global markets showed signs of weakness; the S&P 500 stalled after a long rally, with investors awaiting clarity on Fed interest rate decisions, while Bitcoin stagnated and many altcoins/memecoins dropped by a minimum of 50%.

Investment Outlook for 2025 Assets
🔮 Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin): Expected to peak around Q2 or early Q3 2025, historically about 16 months after the halving (around August 2025).
📈 US Stocks: Could be positive if the Fed cuts rates mid-2025, but risk recession if the US economy slows, especially considering high valuations after a 50% rally in the last two years.
🟡 Gold: Predicted to shine as a safe-haven asset due to increasing global uncertainty, trade wars, and tariff disputes.
💵 Indonesian Government Bonds: Attractive if global interest rates fall, theoretically leading to higher bond prices and offering a more stable alternative to stocks/crypto.

2025 Investment Strategy Shift
🛡️ The speaker is adopting a more conservative strategy for 2025, shifting from last year's aggressive approach (heavy in crypto/stocks) to prioritize wealth preservation.
⚖️ The proposed 2025 portfolio allocation includes: 30% Gold (for hedging), 20% US Stocks (high-quality names), 20% Mutual Funds (Bonds), 15% Cash (for flexibility), 10% Indonesian Stocks, and 5% Crypto.
🔄 Portfolio Rebalancing Steps: Involves profit-taking in high-performing crypto/stocks, rotating profits into defensive assets like gold and bonds, increasing cash reserves for potential deep market discounts, and using Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) when entering new positions.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ The core strategy for 2025 is to preserve wealth (preserve wealth) rather than aggressively chase high returns, adapting to the market's increased uncertainty.
➡️ Investors should avoid being fanatically attached to one asset (stocks, gold, or crypto), recognizing that all assets have cycles where they will perform or underperform.
➡️ Global liquidity is tight due to high Fed interest rates, meaning the current speculative environment is different from previous, easily-funded bull runs.
➡️ Crucial Warning: Be cautious of altcoins and memecoins, as they often correct violently after Bitcoin's hype cycle peaks, preventing investors from buying at the top.
➡️ Personal Action: Do not blindly copy this portfolio allocation; determine your own goals, risk tolerance, and knowledge level first.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Oct 10, 2025, 05:33 UTC