Why is There Political Instability in Pakistan? | Fiscal Focus| | Dawn News English

Structural Drivers of Pakistani Political Instability
📌 Political crises are often explained by individual-centric narratives, but the speaker emphasizes looking at systemic and institutional constraints for a holistic view.
📌 Five key structural trends driving contemporary Pakistani politics include urbanization, the emergence of a large, vocal middle class, increased education indices, transformation of the information landscape (media/social media), and a young demographic.
📌 State systems and political parties lag significantly in adapting to these five structural transformations, creating friction and instability.

Governance Challenges and the Shift in Political Order
📌 There is a critical need to shift from a patronage-based political order (historically reliant on kinship/tribal networks) to a service delivery-based political order.
📌 The expansion of the white-collar, salaried middle class—driven by the services sector—means this demographic expects systemic service delivery rather than relying on traditional patronage connections (e.g., calling an uncle for favors).
📌 Failure to provide service delivery fuels discontent among the large mass of the urban, educated middle class who feel disconnected from traditional state structures.

Civil-Military Contradictions and Institutional Evolution
📌 The enduring civil-military rift is complicated by changing social structures; the rise of successful professionals (lawyers, bankers) diminishes the relative social status appeal of military and bureaucratic services.
📌 Political polarization among civilian actors forces the military to retain its position as the arbiter of power when consensus on basic political rules is absent, leading to a regression toward the polarized politics of the 1990s.
📌 The Judiciary's influence has grown due to a shared class consciousness between the evolving, more middle-class judiciary and the new emerging core of civil society, leading to increased assertion of judicial authority.

Economic Weakness and Elite Conflict
📌 A major weakness is the lack of a viable wealth creation model; political contestation revolves around dividing the existing pie rather than expanding it, meaning election outcomes fail to resolve perennial resource issues.
📌 Political instability is intrinsically linked to economic development; past high growth eras were consumption-led, exacerbating current account deficits and fiscal instability.
📌 The conflict among elites, including the expanding influence of the Judiciary, distracts from the need for a political compromise focused on expanding the overall economic pie for all segments of society.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ The newly empowered middle class is highly vocal and has quadrupled its asset ownership in 20 years, but they feel their success is *despite* the system, fueling visceral resentment against the status quo.
➡️ This rising segment seeks not just economic dividends but "a seat at the table," viewing Parliament as the last frontier they need entry into, as other state pillars (Bureaucracy, Military, Judiciary) are already largely middle class.
➡️ Political discourse is currently toxic, characterized by narrative warfare and accusations rather than debate over coherent economic or political programs, reinforcing cycles of instability.
➡️ For substantive democracy to advance, the influential middle class must forge a bigger coalition that incorporates the working classes and those from Pakistan's peripheries, which is currently not apparent.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Feb 10, 2026, 14:31 UTC