Historical Precedent and Modern Challenges
📌 The 1973 toilet paper shortage, triggered by a Johnny Carson joke, illustrates how perception can create real supply chain crises, similar to current, more serious disruptions.
🚚 A supply chain involves a complex journey: mining/growing raw materials $\rightarrow$ suppliers $\rightarrow$ manufacturers $\rightarrow$ distributors/carriers $\rightarrow$ retailers $\rightarrow$ consumers.
📉 Companies historically avoid building buffers (like extra inventory or idle equipment) due to the steep competition and cost pressures between crises.

Strategies for Resilience: Sharing Risk and Transparency
🤝 Sharing or pooling risk like insurance offers a solution for low-probability, high-impact events by allowing industry players to share the cost of stockpiling critical resources (e.g., pharmaceutical APIs).
🔍 Achieving resilience requires radical supply-chain transparency, meaning visibility beyond Tier 1 suppliers to know where raw materials originate and who else competes for those inputs across the entire supply web.
🚗 The semiconductor shortage demonstrated this complex interdependence: auto manufacturers competing for chips with consumer electronics (like tablets and laptops) due to initial order cancellations during the pandemic.

Leveraging Automation and Data
🤖 Advanced technologies like AI and machine learning are necessary to handle overwhelming data volumes, predict problems before they occur, and recommend specific management actions.
📉 An example cited is spotting plastic resin shortages: combining data on decreased production, severe weather events, demand surges for packaging, and trucking rate spikes could trigger warnings.
✈️ This concept mirrors how the airline industry uses computers to analyze data (weather, passenger location) to efficiently reroute thousands of people during disruptions.
🛑 Stopping the repetition of past mistakes (like the 2009 H1N1 respirator shortage) requires imaginative adoption of shared risk, transparency, and automated recommendations.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ To overcome the trade-off between resilience and efficiency, focus on implementing sharing risk, radical transparency, and automated recommendations.
➡️ Supply chain risk extends beyond direct competitors to any company utilizing the same scarce inputs (e.g., Ford competing with PlayStation 5 manufacturers for microprocessors).
➡️ Implement control tower technologies enhanced by AI to analyze complex datasets and provide actionable alerts (e.g., suggesting alternative suppliers or early notification to customers about potential delays).

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Nov 16, 2025, 17:22 UTC