Bitcoin (BTC) Market Outlook
📌 Bitcoin showed a strong bullish close in October, historically exhibiting a high success rate, with 9 out of 10 occurrences resulting in a bullish close for the overall crypto market since 2016.
📉 The current analysis suggests Bitcoin might sideways in the range of $123,000 to $125,000, potentially seeing a slight bearish candle around October 7th-8th due to the Full Moon.
🚀 The next major rally phase is projected to start around October 14th, potentially pushing towards $126,000 or a maximum of $128,000 before a potential drop.
📉 A maximum drop scenario, based on Elliott Wave analysis if a significant correction occurs, could see Bitcoin test the $118,000 area.

Altcoin Season Indicators and Rationale
🔮 The speaker strongly believes an Altcoin Season will occur in Q4, evidenced by the analysis of the $XAU/BTC$ (Gold/Bitcoin Price) ratio.
⚖️ A drop in the $XAU/BTC$ ratio indicates good conditions for altcoins, as Bitcoin is catching up to Gold, which has year-to-date gains of approximately 50% compared to Bitcoin's 31% gain.
📊 Analysis of Total3 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC and ETH) shows it is currently in a potential rejection area, suggesting a forthcoming drop that historically correlates with a surge in altcoins.

Macroeconomic Factors and Federal Reserve Policy
💸 The expected triple rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of the year (with a 94.6% probability for a cut on October 29th) signals an influx of liquidity into risk-on assets like crypto and stocks.
🏦 Lower interest rates reduce the incentive for individuals to save money in banks, pushing funds into riskier assets, which is bullish for crypto.
📈 The speaker emphasizes that market sentiment (Fear & Greed) is highly irrational and easily manipulated, advising against basing trades solely on current sentiment.

Specific Altcoin Analysis
🌟 ASTER: Currently in an accumulation phase after Binance listing; potential for a run-up of around 20% upside target toward $2.58, based on prior historical calls made internally.
💸 XPL: Forming a retest pattern after a breakout; an interesting play with a potential run-up as long as it stays above the current support range, with a TP1 target at $1.00.
🏃 Hyperliquid (HYPL): Showing signs of bottoming out after historical patterns of a 30% drop followed by a 60%+ rally; potential target of $71–$79 by year-end.
🐕 DOGE: Forming a bullish divergence, with potential for a 40% run-up if it breaks above the current resistance level.
⚛️ ONDO: Currently retesting support after forming a triangle pattern; potential revisit to the range high with a 14% target, invalidation below $0.84.
📉 XRP: Considered wise to wait for a drop to the lower range before entering, expecting a run-up towards $3.16 only after the lower support is tested.
🛑 BNB: Considered less attractive for new plays currently, though internal members have access to analysis on BGB.
🚀 ETH: Expected to complete a false breakdown and run up, maintaining the year-end target of $6,000.

Key Points & Insights
➡️ Access free educational modules covering candlestick reading, Fibonacci, and market analysis at tradewith.com (link provided in pinned comments).
➡️ Like and share the live stream to encourage more effort and free content sharing, as the speaker feels energized by audience interaction.
➡️ The core reasoning for a bullish Q4 rests on Bitcoin catching up to Gold's YTD performance and anticipated high liquidity from expected Fed rate cuts.

📸 Video summarized with SummaryTube.com on Oct 07, 2025, 01:03 UTC